Gold 
          and Silver price targets 
        <<Gold 
          and Silver Charts>> 
        Gold price projects 
         
          
          From: 
            $4,000 Gold! Yes, But When? Since September, 2001, the 
            exponential growth rate for the national debt averaged 9.7% compounded 
            annually, while the rate averaged over the last five years is 12.3%. 
            The exponential growth rate for gold is a bit larger  about 
            18% per year compounded annually. I attribute this larger rate, in 
            excess of 12.3%, to the realization that gold is a competing currency, 
            mining supply is growing little, most governments are aggressively 
            printing money, investors are increasingly interested 
            in gold, and central banks are buying, not selling gold. 
           Since gold correlates closely with national debt, we now have a clear, 
            objective, and believable proxy (national debt) to model the future 
            price of gold. Extend national debt and gold prices forward for the 
            next five years based on the exponential increase from the last five 
            years, and the result is the following table. Bracket gold prices, 
            high and low, based on past annual volatility at about 15%. 
            
            
               
                |  Date | 
                 
                   National Debt $ 
                    (in Trillions) 
                 | 
                 
                    Gold Price $ 
                 | 
                 
                   Low 
                 | 
                 
                    High 
                 | 
               
               
                | 9/30/2012 | 
                 
                   16.1 
                 | 
                 
                   1,670 
                 | 
                 
                   - 
                 | 
                 
                   - 
                 | 
               
               
                | 9/30/2013 | 
                 
                   18.0 
                 | 
                 
                   2,000 
                 | 
                 
                   1,700 
                 | 
                 
                   2,300 
                 | 
               
               
                | 9/30/2014 | 
                 
                   20.3 
                 | 
                 
                   2,500 
                 | 
                 
                   2,100 
                 | 
                 
                   2,900 
                 | 
               
               
                | 9/30/2015 | 
                 
                   22.7 
                 | 
                 
                   3000 
                 | 
                 
                   2,550 
                 | 
                 
                   3,450 
                 | 
               
               
                | 9/30/2016 | 
                 
                   25.5 
                 | 
                 
                   3,650 
                 | 
                 
                   3,100 
                 | 
                 
                   4,200 
                 | 
               
               
                | 9/30/2017 | 
                 
                   28.7 
                 | 
                 
                   4,400 
                 | 
                 
                   3,750 
                 | 
                 
                   5,050 
                 | 
               
             
           
          
          A chart showing the price of gold, on a logarithmic scale, with high 
            and low trend lines, can suggest when the earliest and latest dates 
            will reach $4,000. Those dates are November 2015 through June 2017, 
            which are consistent with the above projection based on the tight 
            correlation to the national debt. 
         
        Gold closing and Silver average price and volume 
         
          
          Average annual price of silver on the London Fix (reference 
            and reference) 
            and sales of American Silver Eagles in years 2007 - 2011 (reference 
            and reference). 
          Historical Silver (London Fix) average prices in U.S. dollars 
            and American Silver Eagle sales 
           
            
               
                |  Year | 
                 
                   Price $ 
                 | 
                 
                    Sales (oz) 
                 | 
                 
                    Notes 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2003 | 
                 
                   4.85 
                 | 
                 
                   8,495,008 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | 2004 | 
                 
                   6.65 
                 | 
                 
                   8,882,754 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | 2005 | 
                 
                   7.22 
                 | 
                 
                   8,891,025 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | 2006 | 
                 
                   11.57 
                 | 
                 
                   10,676,522 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | 2007 | 
                 
                   13.39 
                 | 
                 
                   9,887,000 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | 2008 | 
                 
                   15.02 
                 | 
                 
                   19,583,500 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | 2009 | 
                 
                   14.66 
                 | 
                 
                   28,766,500 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | 2010 | 
                 
                   20.16 
                 | 
                 
                   34,662,500 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | 2011 | 
                 
                   35.11 
                 | 
                 
                   39,868,500 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | 2012 | 
                 
                   31.15 
                 | 
                 
                   33,742,500 
                 | 
                 
                   US Mint ran out 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2013 | 
                 
                   -- 
                 | 
                 
                   -- 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
             
           
          Historical Gold closing prices 
           
            
               
                |  Year | 
                 
                   Price $ 
                 | 
                 
                    % Gain 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2000 | 
                 
                   271.50 
                 | 
                 
                   -- 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2001 | 
                 
                   278.10 
                 | 
                 
                   2.43 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2002 | 
                 
                   347.50 
                 | 
                 
                   24.96 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2003 | 
                 
                   415.20 
                 | 
                 
                   19.48 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2004 | 
                 
                   437.10 
                 | 
                 
                   5.27 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2005 | 
                 
                   516.60 
                 | 
                 
                   18.19 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2006 | 
                 
                   636.00 
                 | 
                 
                   23.11 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2007 | 
                 
                   833.30 
                 | 
                 
                   31.02 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2008 | 
                 
                   880.80 
                 | 
                 
                   5.7 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2009 | 
                 
                   1,095.60 
                 | 
                 
                   24.39 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2010 | 
                 
                   1,421.60 
                 | 
                 
                   29.76 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2011 | 
                 
                   1,566.40 
                 | 
                 
                   10.19 
                 | 
               
             
           
         
        Silver in 1980 
         
          In 1980, silver spiked to about $143 per ounce in today's (inflation-adjusted) 
            dollars (reference). 
            (The actual 1980 high was $49.45 on January 18, 1980, but dropped 
            precipitously shortly thereafter to a low of $13.99 on March 28, 1980. 
            The historic low since 1980 was $3.54750 on February 25, 1991, 
            reference.) Here is the Silver 
            1980 chart.  
          Greater consumption 
            and investment demand. However, it should be noted that the supply 
            and demand dynamics for silver are very different today. Both industrial 
            and investment demand has greatly increased these last several years, 
            and it is expected to continue. 
            Demand from industry alone is snapping up more than half of the silver 
            mined each year. Moreover, "Every day, the world takes roughly 
            1.75 million ounces of silver from the earth. But we consume more 
            than 2 million ounces. This kind of consumption is quickly drying 
            up our dwindling silver reserves" (reference). 
             
          Greater 
            commodity distortion in paper to tangible asset. It should be 
            noted that the daily amount of silver traded at the Comex (i.e. paper 
            silver) is generally more than 160 times the 2 million ounces of silver 
            consumed each day. And this is only the futures market for 
            silver; it does not include SLV (the very popular silver ETF) and 
            other silver funds. Compare this to oil, which is 5:1 paper to tangible 
            oil, and we see a very distorted futures market for silver. 
          Greater number of investors 
            with more wealth. Since 1980, the world population has increased 
            by more than 60% (from about 4.3 billion to 7.0 billion individuals). 
            The number of people that are able to participate in the silver metal 
            bull market today is much, much higher today than in 1980 because 
            so many of the people in Asia were prohibited from owning silver then. 
            Not only can people in Asia own silver today, the government of China 
            actually encourages its citizens to own precious metals and even makes 
            them available via state-owned banks. Intuitively, the number of the 
            world population which can own silver today is probably on the order 
            of triple what it was in 1980. Perhaps more importantly, the number 
            of people in the world that have accumulated wealth enough that they 
            could actually use some of it to purchase silver has grown exponentially. 
            In 2009 Merrill Lynch estimated that more than 10 million people worldwide 
            had a net worth in excess of $1 million USD, about 0.15% of the global 
            population, but for the first time since records have been compiled 
            the number of millionaires in the Asia-Pacific region (3 million) 
            exceeded the number in Europe (2.9 million).  
          Greater monetary supply. 
            Since 1980 the world money supply has increased by a factor of at 
            least 10 and probably more than that, meaning worldwide there is something 
            like 1,000% more dollars, yen, euros, pesos, francs, yuan, etc. in 
            existence today versus 1980. See Global 
            Money Supply Data.  
         
        Fibonacci moves since 2003 
         
          Silver has made Fibonacci 
            range moves since 2003. The Fibonacci Sequence is 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 
            8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, and so on. Here is the Silver 
            2003-2011 chart. You will notice that the 2003-2004 breakout 
            move was roughly $3 (i.e. from $5.49 to $8.42), then the breakout 
            move from $8.42 to $15.22 was roughly a $7 ($6.80 to be exact), 
            the 2007-2008 breakout move from $15.22 to $21.34 was roughly $6 
            ($6.12 to be exact), then the 2010-2011 breakout move from $21.34 
            to $31.23 was $10 ($9.89 to be exact), and the $31.23 to 49.79 
            breakout move was roughly $19 ($18.56 to be exact). Thus, we 
            are getting a fibonacci sequence set of numbers--viz. 3, 7 
            (overshot fib # 5 by 2), 6 (undershot fib # 8 
            by 2), 10 (undershot fib #13 by 3), and 19 (undershot 
            fib $21 by 2). Given this pattern, the next fibonacci number in the 
            sequence is 34 and, as shown in the table below, should yield a price 
            target of $84 (plus or minus 10-15%). 
           
            
               
                |  Breakout date 
                  range  | 
                 
                   Price range 
                 | 
                 
                   Increase 
                 | 
                 
                   Fib 
                 | 
                 
                   Over/Under 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2003-2004 | 
                 
                   $5.49 to $8.42 
                 | 
                 
                   $2.93 
                 | 
                 
                   3 
                 | 
                 
                   -- 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2005-2006 | 
                 
                   $8.42 to $15.22 
                 | 
                 
                   $6.80 
                 | 
                 
                   5 
                 | 
                 
                   +2.8 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2007-2008 | 
                 
                   $15.22 to $21.34 
                 | 
                 
                   $6.12 
                 | 
                 
                   8 
                 | 
                 
                   -1.88 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2010-2011 | 
                 
                   $21.34 to $31.23 
                 | 
                 
                   $9.89 
                 | 
                 
                   13 
                 | 
                 
                   -3.11 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2011 | 
                 
                   $31.23 to $49.79 
                 | 
                 
                   $18.56 
                 | 
                 
                   21 
                 | 
                 
                   -2.44 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2013-2014 (projected) | 
                 
                   $50.00 to $84.00 
                 | 
                 
                   $34.00 
                 | 
                 
                   34 
                 | 
                 
                   -- 
                 | 
               
               
                | 2015-2016 (projected) | 
                 
                   $84.00 to $139.00 
                 | 
                 
                   $55.00 
                 | 
                 
                   55 
                 | 
                 
                   -- 
                 | 
               
             
           
          The Fibonacci Time Zones 
            from 2006 high of $15.22 (in 5/7/2006) to 2008 high of $21.34 (in 
            3/2/2008) is 22 months, from the 2008 high to the first 2011 high 
            of $31.23 (in 1/2/2011) is 34 months. This suggests that the next 
            major fibonacci event is 55 months from Jan, 2011 or the summer of 
            2015. However, the other major high in 2011 of $49.79, was likely 
            a reset of the time sequence. Thus, with the reset fibonacci 
            time zones, we get April and December of 2012 as time periods 
            to watch for possible tops, then December of 2013 or January 
            of 2014, and finally a top in the June to September 2015 
            timeframe. 
          For gold, here is one suggested 
            by Goldewave, 
            assuming a parabolic rise. 
           
            
               
                |  Waves | 
                 
                   Price $ 
                 | 
                 
                   Date 
                 | 
                 
                   Fib 
                 | 
                 
                   % Retrace in time 
                 | 
               
               
                | W1 | 
                 
                   1,032 
                 | 
                 
                   03/17/2008 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | W2 (pullback) | 
                 
                   681 
                 | 
                 
                   10/24/2008 
                 | 
                 
                   34 
                 | 
                 
                   8.7% 
                 | 
               
               
                | W3 | 
                 
                   1,920 
                 | 
                 
                   09/06/2011 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | W4 (pullback) | 
                 
                   1,522 
                 | 
                 
                   12/29/2011 
                 | 
                 
                   21 
                 | 
                 
                   9.0% 
                 | 
               
               
                | W5.1 (projected) | 
                 
                   3,495 
                 | 
                 
                   06/01/2013 
                 | 
                 
                    
                 | 
                 
                    
                 | 
               
               
                | W5.2 ( pullback) | 
                 
                   3,041 
                 | 
                 
                   07/28/2013 
                 | 
                 
                   13 
                 | 
                 
                   8.8% 
                 | 
               
               
                | W5.3 | 
                 
                   6,233 
                 | 
                 
                   04/14/2014 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | W5.4 ( pullback) | 
                 
                   5,734 
                 | 
                 
                   05/12/2014 
                 | 
                 
                   8 
                 | 
                 
                   8.8% 
                 | 
               
               
                | W5.5.1 | 
                 
                   10,899 
                 | 
                 
                   09/19/2014 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | W5.5.2 ( pullback) | 
                 
                   10,354 
                 | 
                 
                   10/03/2014 
                 | 
                 
                   5 
                 | 
                 
                   8.8% 
                 | 
               
               
                | W5.5.3 | 
                 
                   18,712 
                 | 
                 
                   12/14/2014 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | W5.5.4 ( pullback) | 
                 
                   18,150 
                 | 
                 
                   12/14/2014 
                 | 
                 
                   3 
                 | 
                 
                   8.8% 
                 | 
               
               
                | W5.5.5 | 
                 
                   31,672 
                 | 
                 
                   01/16/2015 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
             
           
         
        German Marks in 1919 - 1923 
         
          German Marks needed to buy one ounce of gold in the period 1919 - 
            1923, illustrating what a hyperinflationary event looks like. 
           
            
               
                |  Date | 
                 
                   German Marks 
                 | 
                 
                   Projected 
                 | 
               
               
                | Jan 1919 | 
                 
                   170 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Sept 1919 | 
                 
                   499 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Jan 1920 | 
                 
                   1,340 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Sept 1920 | 
                 
                   1,201 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Jan 1921 | 
                 
                   1,349 
                 | 
                 
                   <-- We are here 
                 | 
               
               
                | Sept 1921 | 
                 
                   2,175 
                 | 
                 
                   <-- End of 2012 
                 | 
               
               
                | Jan 1922 | 
                 
                   3,976 
                 | 
                 
                   <-- 2013-2014 
                 | 
               
               
                | Sept 1922 | 
                 
                   30,381 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Jan 1923 | 
                 
                   372,477 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Sept 1923 | 
                 
                   269,439,000 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Oct 2, 1923 | 
                 
                   6,631,749,000 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Oct 9, 1923 | 
                 
                   24,868,950,000 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Oct 16, 1923 | 
                 
                   84,969,072,000 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Oct 23, 1923 | 
                 
                   1,160,552,882,000 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Oct 30, 1923 | 
                 
                   1,347,070,000,000 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Nov 5, 1923 | 
                 
                   8,700,000,000,000 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
               
                | Nov 30, 1923 | 
                 
                   87,000,000,000,000 
                 | 
                 
                  
                 | 
               
             
           
         
        20th Century Hyperinflations 
         
          When inflation fears rise, fear of fiat currencies grow exponentially. 
           
            
               
                |  Nation | 
                 
                   Year(s) 
                 | 
                 
                   Peak Inflation % 
                 | 
               
               
                | Angola | 
                 
                   1991-95 
                 | 
                 
                   1 x 10^9 
                 | 
               
               
                | Argentina | 
                 
                   1983-92 
                 | 
                 
                   1.5 x 10^9 
                 | 
               
               
                | Austria | 
                 
                   1922-23 
                 | 
                 
                   500,000 
                 | 
               
               
                | Belarus | 
                 
                   2000-08 
                 | 
                 
                   1 x 10^8 
                 | 
               
               
                | Bolivia | 
                 
                   1984-86 
                 | 
                 
                   1 x 10^6 
                 | 
               
               
                | Bosnia/Hergez. | 
                 
                   1992-93 
                 | 
                 
                   5 x 10^7 
                 | 
               
               
                | Brazil | 
                 
                   1967-94 
                 | 
                 
                   2.75 x 10^18 
                 | 
               
               
                | China | 
                 
                   1948-55 
                 | 
                 
                   1.5 x 10^19 
                 | 
               
               
                | Georgia | 
                 
                   1993-95 
                 | 
                 
                   1 x 10^6 
                 | 
               
               
                | Greece | 
                 
                   1944 
                 | 
                 
                   5 x 10^13 
                 | 
               
               
                | Hungary | 
                 
                   1922-24 
                 | 
                 
                   n/a 
                 | 
               
               
                | Hungary | 
                 
                   1945-46 
                 | 
                 
                   4 x 10^29 
                 | 
               
               
                | Mexico | 
                 
                   1982-92 
                 | 
                 
                   1,000 
                 | 
               
               
                | Nicaragua | 
                 
                   1987-90 
                 | 
                 
                   1 x 10^6 
                 | 
               
               
                | Peru | 
                 
                   1988-90 
                 | 
                 
                   1 x 10^6 
                 | 
               
               
                | Phillipines | 
                 
                   1942-44 
                 | 
                 
                   100 
                 | 
               
               
                | Poland | 
                 
                   1921-24 
                 | 
                 
                   1.8 x 10^6 
                 | 
               
               
                | Poland | 
                 
                   1989-91 
                 | 
                 
                   10,000 
                 | 
               
               
                | Romania | 
                 
                   1990-98 
                 | 
                 
                   5 x 10^6 
                 | 
               
               
                | Russia | 
                 
                   1992-98 
                 | 
                 
                   1,000 
                 | 
               
               
                | Taiwan | 
                 
                   1944-49 
                 | 
                 
                   4,000 
                 | 
               
               
                | Ukraine | 
                 
                   1993-95 
                 | 
                 
                   100,000 
                 | 
               
               
                | U.S.S.R. | 
                 
                   1921-22 
                 | 
                 
                   n/a 
                 | 
               
               
                | Yugoslavia | 
                 
                   1989-94 
                 | 
                 
                   1.3 x 10^27 
                 | 
               
               
                | Zaire | 
                 
                   1989-96 
                 | 
                 
                   3 x 10^11 
                 | 
               
               
                | Zimbabwe | 
                 
                   2000-08 
                 | 
                 
                   1 x 10^25 
                 | 
               
             
           
         
        Commodity Price Inflation from 2002 to 2012 
         
          Take from: United 
            States 2012 Cash Deficit. All but natural gas has more than doubled 
            in the past 10 years, with the average being 3.32X. Compare that to 
            the government's own inflation calculation, CPI, at only 27%. Who 
            are you going to believe? 
           
            
               
                |  Commodity | 
                 
                   2002 $ 
                 | 
                 
                   2012 $ 
                 | 
                 
                   2012 / 2002 % 
                 | 
               
               
                | Silver | 
                 
                   4.66 
                 | 
                 
                   32.77 
                 | 
                 
                   703 
                 | 
               
               
                | Gold | 
                 
                   331.92 
                 | 
                 
                   1,721.64 
                 | 
                 
                   519 
                 | 
               
               
                | Copper | 
                 
                   1,592.96 
                 | 
                 
                   7,711.23 
                 | 
                 
                   484 
                 | 
               
               
                | Oil | 
                 
                   29.44 
                 | 
                 
                   86.69 
                 | 
                 
                   294 
                 | 
               
               
                | Diesel | 
                 
                   1.43 
                 | 
                 
                   3.96 
                 | 
                 
                   277 
                 | 
               
               
                | Gasoline | 
                 
                   0.81 
                 | 
                 
                   2.82 
                 | 
                 
                   348 
                 | 
               
               
                | Natural Gas | 
                 
                   4.75 
                 | 
                 
                   3.34 
                 | 
                 
                   70 
                 | 
               
               
                | Coal | 
                 
                   29.50 
                 | 
                 
                   78.21 
                 | 
                 
                   265 
                 | 
               
               
                | Wheat | 
                 
                   168.98 
                 | 
                 
                   361.00 
                 | 
                 
                   214 
                 | 
               
               
                | Corn | 
                 
                   107.01 
                 | 
                 
                   321.54 
                 | 
                 
                   300 
                 | 
               
               
                | Soybean | 
                 
                   208.24 
                 | 
                 
                   533.03 
                 | 
                 
                   256 
                 | 
               
               
                | Coffee | 
                 
                   38.52 
                 | 
                 
                   102.94 
                 | 
                 
                   267 
                 | 
               
               
                | Rice | 
                 
                   185.27 
                 | 
                 
                   590.73 
                 | 
                 
                   319 
                 | 
               
               
                | AVERAGE | 
                 
                   - 
                 | 
                 
                   - 
                 | 
                 
                   332 
                 | 
               
               
                | CPI | 
                 
                   - 
                 | 
                 
                   - 
                 | 
                 
                   127 
                 | 
               
               
                | Average wages | 
                 
                   15.29 
                 | 
                 
                   20.00 
                 | 
                 
                   131 
                 | 
               
               
                | S&P 500 | 
                 
                   879.12 
                 | 
                 
                   1426.19 
                 | 
                 
                   162 
                 | 
               
             
           
         
        Money Supply: 
        
          - M1 money supply 
            divided by gold supply. A simple way to determine the revalued 
            price for gold (if and when the U.S. dollar collapses) is to take 
            the M1 money supply (see Money 
            Stock Measures) and divide by the U.S. gold supply (about 8,100 
            metric tons). For example, as of February, 2011, M1 was 1,873.6 billion; 
            and divided by the U.S. gold reserves (of 285.7 million ounces) results 
            in $6,556 per ounce of gold. Jim Rickards explains it in this video 
            dated September 16, 2010. M2 is the velocity of money. When that increases, 
            according to Art Cashin (see interview), 
            then inflation is not far behind. Also see: On 
            Inflation, M2, and the Velocity of Money (posted 8/10/2012). However, 
            Mises has a counter argument here: Is 
            Velocity Like Magic? (posted 3/20/2002). 
 
         
        Notes: 
        
          - Silver 
            Price Forecast: Silver Bull Market Is Following The Structure Of The 
            70s Bull Market. Posted 5/9/2013. Predicting Silver to $140 by 
            end of 2013 or early 2014. 
 
          - Gold 
            To Surge Over $460 & Smash Through Key $2,000 Level. Posted 
            3/14/2013. Top Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick issued a bullish call 
            for gold. He predicts around $1,795 by May-July 2013 which is right 
            in the middle of the major resistance level of $1,790-1,800. "We 
            believe we could be seeing a dynamic whereby financial market and 
            economic conditions in China stop USDCNY from falling, lead to more 
            USD diversification as a consequence and thereby provide a strong 
            bid in the market for Gold."
 
          - The 
            Most Dangerous Gun in Human History. Posted 2/21/2013. What weapon, 
            what gun, is this? Real Money. Thirty (30) days before the 1999 S&P 
            500 DOTCOM implosion, Gold hit bottom, after Gold had dropped for 
            three months. The weapon warned of the implosion that was to come 
            as real money was converted to fiat funny money in anticipation of 
            the crash.
 
             
            Over one year of range bound trading and a sharp decline recently 
            still keep gold trapped in a long term basing pattern between the 
            $1280-$1300 range upwards to around $1800-$1825 per ounce. A 
            retest of the lower end of this range, especially below $1380 indicates 
            another monetary contraction is underway and a 30%+ correction will 
            set off a panic in the currency wars and American economy. 
            The only stability the average American can obtain during this upcoming 
            period of economic instability is in fact real money loaded with silver 
            bullets (coinage) as a shield against the hyperinflation which kicks 
            into high gear after this next market correction. 
             
             
          - Major 
            Top in Stocks and Major Bottom in Gold. 2/20/2013. The author 
            expects a similar pattern to the 2007-2008 for the stock market and 
            oil, but this time it will be the stock market and precious metals.
 
          - Physical 
            Vs. Paper: Is The Gold/Silver Price Correction Over? Posted 2/19/2013. 
            My fund partner has been keeping track of the weekly open interest 
            and COT report positions since early 2005. This chart shows the weekly 
            hedge fund net long open interest vs. the commercial trader gross 
            short position. It dates back to May 2005 and runs through Friday's 
            COT report. You can see from the aligned red circles that the gold 
            price hits a "cyclical" bottom after a period in which the 
            large hedge fund net long position hits a low point and the commercial 
            gross short position also hits a "high" point (the short 
            position is negative, so a high point on that data series represents 
            a low short position). Using this information, it appears to me that 
            the current sell-off in gold/silver is at or near an end.
 
          - Gold 
            At $10,000  Silver At $400  Heres How It Will Happen. 
            Posted 1/29/2013. Bubbles tend to follow the 80/20 ratio indicated 
            in the Pareto Principle. Phase 1 takes approximately 70-80% of the 
            time and covers approximately 10-20% of the total price change. Phase 
            2 accelerates so that it takes only 20-30% of the time but covers 
            80-90% of the price change. Extreme bubbles such as the South Sea 
            Bubble and the Silver bubble experience approximately 90% of the price 
            change in the 2nd phase. The ratio of the phase 2 ending price to 
            beginning price is typically 4 to 8  a huge price move.
 
             
            Assume that silver began its uptrend in November 2001 at $4.01 and 
            that gold began its move in April 2001 at $255. Silver rallied to 
            nearly $50 in 2011, and gold also rallied to a new high of about $1,900 
            in 2011. Assume that both surpass those highs about mid-2013 and accelerate 
            into phase 2 thereafter. Using these assumptions, phase 1 for silver 
            would measure 12.5 years and phase 2 could last until approximately 
            late 2016  early 2017. If we assume that phase 1 was a move 
            from $4 to $50 and that represents 19% of the total move, the high 
            could be around $250. The ratio of phase 2 ending price to beginning 
            price would be 5:1  reasonable. 
             
             
          - Rosen 
            - Expect Stunning $233 For Silver As It Begins To Soar. Posted 
            1/18/2013. The $233 target could come as early as March, 2014. 
 
          - The 
            Dow Silver Ratio. Posted 12/27/2012. How long do we have until 
            a single tube of 20 American Silver Eagle Coins is sufficient to purchase 
            a single share of the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Currently, the 
            ratio is about 500 silver coins to 1 share of the DOW. At the peak 
            in the 1980s, the gold silver ratio went to 17 silver coins to 1 DOW 
            share. 
 
          - The 
            Roadmap For $3,000+ Gold, $100+ Silver & 1,650 HUI. Posted 
            11/21/2012. Predicting $3,000 gold and $115 silver by February, 2014. 
            Good charts to back up the prediction.
 
          - $4,000 
            Gold! Yes, But When? Posted 11/5/2012. Projects $4000 gold in 
            late 2015 or mid-2017. This assumes a current annual growth rate of 
            between 10% and 12% for the national debt. This is conditioned on 
            a massive and devastating financial and economic melt-down NOT occurring 
            in the next four to six years. Such an event would cause the price 
            of gold to skyrocket, of course.
 
          - Some 
            Incredible Gold [and Silver] Charts. Posted 10/31/2012. 
 
          - $2,300 
            Gold, Here We Come. Posted 10/15/2012. 
 
          - How 
            A 12th Century Mathematician Just Doomed Bernanke's Wealth Effect. 
            Posted 9/25/2012. Suggests the rally from June on Bernanke's anticipated 
            QE3 (or QE-Infinity) may end this week and a pullback of 47 days will 
            ensue into early November, 2012 before the next run.
 
          - Forget 
            the $ - 1oz of Silver for 45 Acres! Posted 9/20/2012. Ratio investing. 
            One denarius (or the equivalent of 1/10th of an ounce of silver) for 
            one day's wages. The author calculates that the Louisiana Purchase 
            of 529,920,000 acres of land was made for 729,300 oz. of gold or 11,668,800 
            oz. of silver (using 16:1 ratio). Thus, 45 acres were purchased for 
            1 oz. of silver. Another approach is: That the purchase was done for 
            15 million dollars back in 1803. Back then, the silver dollar was 
            0.7735 oz. of silver. Thus, the Louisiana Purchase was made for approximately 
            11,602,000 troy oz. of silver. The author speculates a possible 1:1 
            ratio of 1 acre for 1 oz. of silver when the economic collapse arrives.
 
          - $50 
            Silver "Virtually Guaranteed". Posted 9/18/2012. With 
            gold having passed $1700 (twice the 1980 nominal high of $850) already, 
            it stands to reason that $100 (twice the 1980 nominal high of $50) 
            silver could be virtually guaranteed. Please note that the gold to 
            silver ratio back in 1980 was 17:1, so a similar ratio (possible smaller, 
            such as 10:1) should occur at some point in the coming spike.
 
          - Silver 
            Price Forecast: Is Silver Fast On Its Way To $50?. Posted 9/17/2012. 
            Very good analysis of the current silver price.
 
          - What 
            Will Be Scarce: Liquidity and Reliable Income Streams. Posted 
            8/30/2012. A good summary discussion of scarcity, cost basis, 
            opportunity cost, Also, the trend toward access versus 
            ownership. For example, the trend is toward access (i.e. carpooling, 
            renting, etc.) of autos and homes versus ownership. In the United 
            States, what will be scarce is income, not commodities. The 
            corollary is: All capital sunk into ownership-model assets such as 
            vehicles and homes will become trapped capital (i.e. they will 
            become illiquid, since there will be little demand for these 
            assets). The trend of declining income for labor and the decline of 
            the ownership model of resource-intensive assets such as vehicles 
            and homes will continue into the future. Thus, the importance for 
            finding reliable income and liquidity (the ability to sell 
            assets quickly and safely for cash) going forward. The future of investing 
            is "Local Control."
 
          - Silver 
            likely to outperform Gold, Copper in Q4 2012: TD Securities. Posted 
            7/3/2012. According to BNP Paribas, "An improving macroeconomic 
            outlook and high risk appetite should see silver outperform gold for 
            most of H212 and 2013 although silver, like gold, remains vulnerable 
            to waves of liquidation. As a result, the gold/silver ratio should 
            decline to the low 40s by H213.
 
          - Jim 
            Sinclairs Most Important Message in 10 Years: Gold 
            to Target $3,500. Posted 7/3/2012. Jim Sinclair predicting that, 
            in one to three years, gold will hit $3,500.
 
          - Can 
            We Profit From Gold Price Seasonality? Posted 2/12/2012. Price 
            projections for gold for 2012. Suggests $1,950 to $2,200 by end of 
            year. 
 
          - Golds 
            Role During Periods Of Monetary Stress. Posted 2/9/2012. Golds 
            job is, and will always attempt to, during periods of monetary stress, 
            balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA. The equation is: 
            Price of Gold = External 
            Debt / 260,272,000 (ounces of U.S. gold; i.e. 8,133 tonnes). The 
            external debt is currently slightly under $5 trillion; thus, the gold 
            price should be a little over $19K.
 
          - James 
            Turk reaffirms his $400 long-term silver target. Posted 1/31/2012. 
            A 20-minute presentation where James Turk outline the reasons behind 
            the $400 price target in the 2013-2015 timeframe. You need to register 
            to watch the video. Essentially, he believes gold will go to $8,000 
            and the gold/silver ratio will be 20:1 by then, or a $400 price for 
            silver. 
 
          - The 
            'Gold Bubble' In Perspective. Posted 1/31/2012. Charts comparing 
            gold's price to the monetary aggregates M2, MZM (money of zero maturity), 
            and S&P 500 index.
 
          - Silver 
            Price Forecast 2012:I Stand By $140 Silver Price In 2012. Posted 
            1/26/2012. Similar pattern to the 70s. See here. 
            
 
          - When 
            Will Silver Reach a New High? Posted 1/23/2012. If the averages 
            of the prior corrections are any indication, silver will break to 
            new highs in May, 2013. However, what's different now is that both 
            industrial and investment demand for silver continue to be strong. 
            
 
          - The 
            Possibility of $1,000 Silver before Hyperinflation. Posted 1/3/2012. 
            Assumes gold to reach $10,000 and silver $1,000 or a 10:1 ratio--i.e. 
            silver overshoots its current ratio to gold.
 
          - Gold 
            on the Cusp of $3,000+: An Update. Posted 12/19/2011. Uses fractals 
            to arrive at the price target. Was accurate on target of $1920 in 
            2011. 
 
          - Keynote 
            Speech At Sydney Gold Symposium 14-15 November 2011 By Alf Field. 
            Alf Field concludes that there is at least an 80% probability that 
            the silver correction bottomed at $26.59 back in September 26, 2011. 
            As for gold, he believes that there is a 40% probability for a retest 
            of the range of $1478 to $1576. The higher the price goes above $1767, 
            the greater the probability that the low was in at $1531 back in September 
            26, 2011. Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave 
            III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and 
            strongest wave in the entire gold bull market. The target for this 
            wave should be around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections on the 
            way.
 
          - Silver 
            Update 11-9-11 Range Expansion. Posted November 9, 2011. Good 
            discussion on increasing silver range moves from 2004.
 
          - Gold 
            is not in a Bubble: Its on its way to $10,000 an ounce. 
            Posted October 11, 2011. We can look at three features of golds 
            rise that tell us, it is not only not in a bubble but, it will almost 
            certainly rise to $10,000 an ounce and beyond. These features are: 
            (1) the loss of purchasing power of global currencies, (2) the inflationary 
            effects of money creation, (3) Irreversible trends will continue to 
            cause gold to rise. Three of the most significant "irreversible" 
            trends are: (a) the aging population, (b) outsourcing, (c) peak oil. 
            
 
          - Goldrunner: 
            The Gold Tsunami Wave Cycle. Posted September 25, 2011. Compares 
            price action in gold/silver to the 1970s.Expecting 3 momentum runs 
            over the next few years with the first already completed. Looking 
            for a potential "bottom" next week (i.e. 1st week of October) 
            and the beginning of the next wave higher. Upside targets for Silver 
            for this next run into late 2011/ early 2012 of $52 to $56 should 
            be achievable for silver, with $58 to $62 as real possibilities. Golds 
            run will reach the $2250 level and $2500 level before a higher run 
            takes us up to $3,000 Gold, or higher. 'We believe that we lie at 
            a load the boat moment in this historic Gold and Silver 
            bull for Gold, Silver, and the PM stocks.'
 
          - Silver 
            getting ready for a breakout: Buy on weakness before the end of October 
            (2011). 
 
          - The 
            U.S. goes Ka-Poom in roughly 2013-2014. It has parallel features 
            to the Argentina's 2001 Economic Collapse.
 
          - $8,000 
            GOLD and $400 SILVER by 2013 - 2015: James Turk [Part 1 of 2]. 
            YouTube uploaded on May 29, 2011.
 
          - Eric 
            Sprott and James Turk on SILVER. Posted August 5, 2011. "Silver 
            will be the investment of this decade."
 
          - The 
            Imminent $2.5 Trillion Debt Ceiling Hike Will Unleash A Gold Price 
            Surge To $1,950 And Higher. Posted August 1, 2011.
 
          - Gold 
            Faces Short-Term Price Trap. Posted July 29, 2011. Pullback in 
            gold prices based on U.S. debt ceiling resolution and re-emergance 
            of global recessionary forces. However, an ultimate currency collapse 
            will send gold prices even higher.
 
          - Gold 
            Special Report: Erste Group. Posted July 4, 2011. A 91-page report 
            detailing everything related to Gold. 
 
          - Why 
            Gold Above $15,000 Per Ounce By 2020 Is Realistic Without Hyperinflation. 
            Posted June 10, 2011.
 
          - Seasonal 
            Gold Price Trends Favor Summer Purchases. Posted June 3, 2011. 
            Shows annual charts going back to 2001.
 
          - Silver's 
            Destiny with 200. Predicting a pullback to the 200 day moving 
            average which is currently at $28.79 (as of 5-6-2011) sometime in 
            the summer.
 
          - Silver 
            Criticality - Why Silver Might Crash. Ben Davies sees a correction 
            into August and then new highs by EOY or 2012. See Interview.
 
          - Seasonality 
            of silver. Suggests the summer months (June - August) is the best 
            time to buy.
 
          - Silver 
            approaching intermediate top in April/May 2011. Dated April 21, 
            2011. 
 
          - Gold 
            value presentation developed in 2010 by Paul Tustain, founder 
            of BullionVault.com. His valuation on gold sets a conservative target 
            price of close to $4,000 per ounce.
 
          -  Gold 
            and Silver price targets. Fractal analysis developed in March, 
            2011 giving a May-June, 2011 target of $52-56 for silver and $1860-$1975 
            for gold.
 
          - Update! 
            These 86 Analysts Now on $5,000 Gold Bandwagon. 
 
          - $300 
            Silver is beginning to look conservative! Here's why
 
          - QE2 
            and the Fate of the U.S. Economy. Argues for a buying opportunity 
            in precious metals coming this summer, 2011.
 
          - What 
            If Precious Metals 'Mania' Hits India Or China? (Part I)? And 
            Part 
            II 
 
          - Chinas 
            "Rare" Commodity Monopoly Threatens U.S., Leeb Says (video). 
            Includes comment on industrial use of silver rocketing silver past 
            $100.
 
          - The 
            Devaluation Against Gold Is The Inflation. Excellent interview 
            on gold on various points. Mr. Rickards targets gold at $7,000 or 
            higher if 1980 is repeated.
 
         
          
         
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